USDA Forecasts Vietnam's Rice Exports to Reach 8.1 Million Tons in 2026

USDA Raises China’s Rice Import Forecast as Demand Remains Strong

In its July update, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for China’s rice imports in 2026 to 3.9 million metric tons, an increase of 400,000 metric tons compared to its previous estimate. One of the key drivers behind the higher import demand is the growing use of rice as an ingredient for animal feed.

For the Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, the USDA maintained its import forecast at 5.6 million metric tons for this year, which would represent the highest level on record.

According to the Philippine Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI), the country imported 2.75 million metric tons of rice during the first six months of this year, up 20% compared to the same period last year. Vietnam remained the Philippines’ largest supplier, although imports from other sources have also increased significantly.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment reported that the country exported 5.2 million metric tons of rice in the first half of this year, an increase of nearly 10% year-on-year. China was Vietnam’s second-largest export market, accounting for 19.4% of total rice exports, with an impressive 87% growth rate. The Philippines remained the largest importer, representing 45% of Vietnam’s rice exports, although its imports declined by 3.8% compared to the same period in 2025.

Rice exporters in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta said that demand from China and the Philippines has recently slowed, while African markets are showing stronger purchasing demand. As global supply tightens, Vietnam’s rice export prices have shown a slight upward trend, particularly for fragrant rice and premium specialty rice. If the current export momentum continues, Vietnam’s rice exports are expected to exceed 8 million metric tons this year.

Vietnam achieved a record-breaking rice export volume of nearly 9.2 million metric tons in 2024, generating US$5.7 billion in export revenue. In 2025, the country exported 7.85 million metric tons of rice, worth approximately US$4 billion.

Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper